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China’s Property Development Sector: What’s the Hurry?

The past month here on the ground in the Yangtze River Delta has seen activity that runs counter to macroeconomic measures in the property development sector. By all accounts, construction sites are supposed to be grinding to a halt and new projects deferred indefinitely. Instead, what I and Western friends are seeing is an acceleration of construction activity. Where for the last two years we’ve only had to bear incessant noise, dirt and dust from sunrise to sunset, now we are hearing construction activity 24/7 the past three weeks (whenever I became conscious in the shift of pace of construction). And new development projects are continuing to sprout up around us in a region that theoretically is economically mature. It seems a near-impossibility to escape the din of construction machines punching the ground or stamping steel or crunching concrete.

One building that friends and I were talking about in the Suzhou Industrial Park is still having floors stacked on its skeleton frame of concrete and steel while construction workers fix mirrored-windows to lower levels of the same structure.

We’re not entirely sure of why construction activity has accelerated recently; however, we’re sure it has to do as much with uncertainty about what the government will do next with the property sector as much as uncertainty about the Chinese economy in general. Some of the questions likely at the forefront of the minds of developers include: will the government end bank loans to developers completely at the end of the year? will they end all construction projects for and indefinite period of time? and will they be able to find buyers for their residential projects and renters for their office property?

One thing, however, is certain: the accelerated pace of construction does not fill me with any greater sense of security in the integrity of the finished structures.

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Chinese Officials Canned for Building Bridges with Trash

FinanceAsia recently reported that officials in the northern province of Jilin were fired for permitting construction teams to fill bridge with garbage instead of with concrete.

China has fired at least 10 railway officials over a sub-standard Rmb2.3 billion ($360 million) construction project that involved bridges filled with trash instead of concrete, and builders without any relevant experience, including one team led by a cook.

I wrote about this sort of padding two years ago in an article for CHaINA magazine, when there was a rash of bridge collapses. Though officials were censured and construction companies fined, seems old habits die hard. Of course, the last thing the nation’s leaders need is for this to be found on their coveted high-speed railway.

Nevertheless, the company responsible for the garbage bridges, China Railway Material Commercial is pushing ahead with a Rmb14.7 billion ($2.3 billion) IPO in Shanghai.

A migrant worker who helped build the bridges said to Chinese media, “I wouldn’t dare to take the train once it’s finished.”

A wise man indeed.

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Your Money or Your High-speed Rail

Chapter 2 of China Inside Out is completely devoted to the stresses and strains China’s new middle class suffers. For the economics behind the squeeze, check out the highly readable New York Times article about the shrinking purse Chinese consumer have been suffering for the last decade. The article discusses how central government infrastructure projects and the resuscitation of the State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) has been at the expense of all but the well-connected and very rich.

Indeed, economists say this nation’s decade of remarkable economic growth, led by exports and government investment in big projects like China’s high-speed rail network, has to a great extent been underwritten by the household savings — not the spending — of the country’s 1.3 billion people.

This system, which some experts refer to as state capitalism, depends on the transfer of wealth from Chinese households to state-run banks, government-backed corporations and the affluent few who are well enough connected to benefit from the arrangement.

Read more of the post at This Is China!

image credit: eastsunrises.wordpress.com

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Has China Re-innovation Hit a Wall?

The Wall Street Journal recently published an investigation into the possible causes of the Hangzhou-Wenzhou train accident of July this year. The findings coincide with research I’ve been doing on pollution created by the manufacture of “green” energy solutions, like the polysilicon that goes into the production of solar power cells.

The WSJ writes:

The problem, these people say, is that Hitachi—fearful that Chinese technicians might reverse-engineer and steal the technology—sold components with the inner workings concealed from Hollysys. Hitachi executives say this “black box” design makes gear harder to copy, and also harder to understand, for instance during testing.

“It’s still generally a mystery how a company like Hollysys could integrate our equipment into a broader safety-signaling system without intimate knowledge of our know-how,” a senior Hitachi executive said.

The Washington Post reported in 2008 that Luoyang Zhonggui High-Technology Co in Henan Province, near the Yellow River, was dumping raw, unprocessed waste into the surrounding countryside, where villagers lived just hundreds of meters away.

Read more of this post at This Is China!

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Shanghai Subway Accident: Tales from the Crypt

This has been an annus horribilis for China infrastructure. This year has seen wind turbines blowing up, bridges falling down, bullet trains crashing into one another and, most recently, a terrible accident on a Shanghai subway line I take several times a week. On hearing the news about the Shanghai accident my (Chinese) wife simply shook her head and said, “Everyone knows they’re building things too fast.” She told me of a program she had seen on Chinese national television in which engineers echoed the same sentiment. “I don’t want you to take the bullet train to Shanghai,” she said quickly, “and I don’t want you riding the subway in Shanghai, either. Ride your bicycle!” Of course, that’s hardly feasible with a 150 km to cover between Suzhou and Shanghai; leave alone the thought of navigating Shanghai traffic on a bicycle.”

Read more of the story at This is China! blog.

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Am I Cool Yet?:Monocle Magazine Interview

Monocle Magazine recently interviewed me about the relationship in China between its water resources and energy needs and the impact the relationship has on China’s development. I consider Monocle the magazine for ambassador’s wives and rich Arab sheiks; it’s approach is high-end all the way – an honor to be in its pages. The interview appears in its September edition.

The online interview is here (unfortunately, behind a paywall). Though I haven’t received a copy of the magazine yet, you should be able to see the interview in print.

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Hotpot Podcast: China’s Internet in a Pot

How can it be possible for China to build an Innovation Nation when it’s internet – the backbone of so much of 21st-century innovation – is so tightly controlled and filtered?

Listen here to the latest Hotpot Podcast in which I hold forth on the nature of innovation in China and discuss the writing project I’m working on now.  (Running time: 9 minutes, 26 seconds.)

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Marketplace Radio Interview on China’s Energy Trends

Check out a recent Marketplace radio interview in which the intrepid Rob Schmitz interviews me during a National Public Radio report about how energy trends in China are impacting companies – foreign and domestic – doing business in the country.

Listen to the podcast report and read the transcript of the piece here.

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“But I’m Not Dead Yet…”

While posting my first-ever video on Youtube I ran into a bit of a branding problem. The video promotes the sort of China talks I deliver to corporations and at conferences. Originally, I thought to name the video “Bill Dodson Speaks on the China Trends Impacting Business and the World.” Wordy, I know. But that wasn’t the problem.

Whenever my video displayed for viewing, a videotaped service of a memorial service for one deceased “Bill Dodson” was top of the list of other videos “like” my own.

Well, I considered, that would certainly be confusing for viewers of my Youtube video – and potential buyers of my book and perhaps speaking services – if they thought I was already dead.

So I changed the title of my video to “The Critical China Trends Impacting Business and the World” (still wordy, I know; but got to try to pick up as many keywords as possible ;-) ) No more memorial listing, then. Though authors supposedly sell better posthumously than when they were still alive and kicking.

Check out the video here.

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China’s Neo-coms Meet George Washington

The Wall Street Journal recently reported on the United States inviting Vietnamese officials on board its aircraft carrier USS George Washington to signal its support for the Vietnamese in the disputed South China Sea. Only the week before the Chinese shipped out its first carrier, a Soviet model that China spent 10 years refurbishing. The commander of the American carrier, Captain David Lausman, framed the display at China’s doorstep:

“It took us a hundred years to get right here,” Capt. Lausman said of the navy’s century of building aircraft carriers. “And we have 11 of these throughout the world right now, not just one.”

China, as I write in China Inside Out, needs only to cripple one of the carrier fleets should armed conflict ever become a reality. Victory for the Chinese military in modern times has simply been to fight another day.

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